A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
